Journal cover Journal topic
Geoscience Communication An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Journal topic
Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-2019-3
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-2019-3
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 20 Mar 2019

Research article | 20 Mar 2019

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Geoscience Communication (GC).

Communicating Complex Forecasts for Enhanced Early Warning in Nepal

Mirianna Budimir1, Amy Donovan2, Sarah Brown1, Puja Shakya3, Dilip Gautam3, Madhab Uprety3, Michael Cranston4, Alison Sneddon1, Paul Smith5, and Sumit Dugar3 Mirianna Budimir et al.
  • 1Practical Action Consulting, Practical Action, Rugby, UK
  • 2Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
  • 3Practical Action Consulting, Practical Action, Kathmandu, Nepal
  • 4RAB Consultants, Perth, UK
  • 5Water Numbers, Lancaster, UK

Abstract. Early warning systems have the potential to save lives and improve resilience. Simple early warning systems rely on real-time data and deterministic models to generate evacuation warnings; these simple deterministic models enable life-saving action, but provide limited lead time for resilience-building early action. More complex early warning systems supported by forecasts, including probabilistic forecasts, can provide additional lead time for preparation. However, barriers and challenges remain in disseminating and communicating these more complex warnings to community members and individuals at risk. Research was undertaken to analyse and understand the current early warning system in Nepal, considering available data and forecasts, information flows, early warning dissemination and decision making for early action. The research reviewed the availability and utilisation of complex forecasts in Nepal, their integration into dissemination (Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) bulletins and SMS warnings), and decision support tools (Common Alerting Protocols and Standard Operating Procedures), considering their impact on improving early action to increase the resilience of vulnerable communities to flooding.

Mirianna Budimir et al.
Interactive discussion
Status: open (until 19 May 2019)
Status: open (until 19 May 2019)
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
[Subscribe to comment alert] Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement
Mirianna Budimir et al.
Mirianna Budimir et al.
Viewed  
Total article views: 278 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
213 64 1 278 0 1
  • HTML: 213
  • PDF: 64
  • XML: 1
  • Total: 278
  • BibTeX: 0
  • EndNote: 1
Views and downloads (calculated since 20 Mar 2019)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 20 Mar 2019)
Viewed (geographical distribution)  
Total article views: 207 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 191 with geography defined and 16 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 
Cited  
Saved  
No saved metrics found.
Discussed  
No discussed metrics found.
Latest update: 22 Apr 2019
Publications Copernicus
Download
Short summary
Early warning systems for natural hazards have the potential to save lives and improve people’s resilience to disasters. However, challenges remain in disseminating and communicating more complex warnings with longer lead times to decision makers and individuals at risk. Research was undertaken to analyse and understand the current flood early warning system in Nepal, considering available data and forecasts, information flows, early warning dissemination and decision making for early action.
Early warning systems for natural hazards have the potential to save lives and improve...
Citation